NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #709-710
Cavs +9 (2 units)
Cavs ML +280 (3 units)
Lebron O34.5 -130 (1 unit)
This Golden State team isn’t nearly as mentally tough or physically as tough as people make them out to be. This is a team who I don’t think knows how to close (1-4 vs. Cavs in closeout games) and if you can set the tone early and let them know they aren’t going to be able to run you over early, good things can start happening like we saw last game. The Cavs have been playing better every game, especially on the defensive side where they have been a lot cleaner and making fewer mistakes. You really can’t simulate how the Warriors play in practice so it’s taken them time to learn how to contest their shots and knowing when to switch and not to switch. Golden State relies so much on the three that when they are off like last game (11 for 39) they aren’t going to have a tough time scoring enough points to beat this Cavs team who have Lebron and Kyrie who are going to combine for 70+ a game. The three ball is the first shot to start to go when nerves kick in and all of the pressure in the world is on the Warriors this game. Curry and Thompson’s legs are starting to look a little heavy and I wouldn’t be surprised if they struggle again tonight. The collapse talks have already begun and they already said they view this game being as important as Game 7 because if they lose this and have to go back to Cleveland only up 1 game, look out. If Cavs jump out to an early lead, it is going to be very interesting to see how these Warriors react (my prediction is not well).

Even though Cavs were ultimately blown out in the first two games they were right there only down three at half in game 2 until Lebron inexplicably only took six shots in the second half. Lebron can’t disappear again in the second half like he did in Game 1 and Game 2, but with it all on the line, there’s no way we see that passive of a Lebron again.

Cleveland imposed their will last game and finally got their confidence going in what could have been the turning points in this series and I think that carries over to this game. The Cavs have been here before last year and won two games in Oakland in this same exact scenario after getting smoked in the first two. KD or no KD, I love them to win this game and extend this series. Look for the Big 3 of Cleveland to combine for 90+ again with Lebron keeping them in it with his best game of the finals yet (40+ points) and Kyrie finishing it at the end to force a Game 6. Like I said before last game, call me crazy, I still think Cavs take this series, am extremely confident they win this game and am rolling over my bet from last game to get into the green for these finals.  Take the Cavs spread, ML, and Bron over.

NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #707-708
Cavs ML over Warriors (3u)
Maybe I am delusional and this will go down as an all time terrible call thinking the Cavs had any chance this series but all it takes is one win from Cleveland to get people talking and for some small hope to be talked about over the weekend. The Cavs had it last game until one of the worst finishes ever where they went 0-8 in the last 3:10 and lost a game they never should have lost. I expect Cleveland to finish stronger tonight and to get themselves at least one win in this series.  Take the Cavs.

NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #705-706
Cavs Moneyline +145 over Warriors (1o units)

You guys know me and know I’m not a guy to throw around units lightly. My 10 unit plays are very rare (usually reserved for only my strongest spots in the NFL) but this is easily my top play of the NBA season, maybe the sports year period.

I haven’t felt this strongly about an NBA game since another one of my very rare 10 unit NBA plays which was the Warriors over OKC in game 6 last year (those of you who were a member last year remember that call). I would never call a game a lock but I flew out to Vegas to bet this game and hit the series price again, enough said.

Even though the Cavs have ultimately gotten blown out in each of the first two games, this series is far from over. The home team is going to dominate this series until an “anything can happen” Game 7. The Warriors have looked unstoppable but all they have ultimately done so far was is what they were supposed to do: defend their home court. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter if they won by 1 or 101, they just did what they were expected to do and the Cavs will have a chance to do the same. The Cavs biggest flaw through the first two games beside their turnovers in the first game was the lack of production from their role players.

Through First Two Games:

Tristan Thompson – 8 points

Korver – 8 points

JR Smith – 3 points

Deron Williams – 0 points

All four were beyond pathetic on the road in the first two games, but you know what the beauty of playing at home is? Role players ALWAYS PLAY BETTER AT HOME.

There is no chance all of these guys continue to struggle when they return to their home court tonight. Kyrie had an off game last game but he is going to go off tonight and I think we see Lebron have the best game of the playoffs yet. Those two will combine for 65+ and Love will chip in for at least another 20. One other role player is really going to step up tonight, not sure who, could be Korver or JR Smith, but someone is going to. I also love the Cavs to get back to their 50% shooting from the field and 40% from 3. Don’t be shocked when the Cavs make 25+ threes tonight.

The look ahead line on this game at the beginning of the series was Cavs -2. For most casual bettors and fans alike it’s a forgone conclusion that this series is over and it’s most likely a sweep. That public perception along with the one sided betting action (over 70% of the money is on the Warriors) is what moved this line close to five points. The Warriors are almost unbeatable in Oakland and in hindsight there’s no way I should have faded them the first two games, but Game 3 on the road in the finals is a completely different animal. The role players are going to step up and the Cavs will benefit from the home court calls.

There’s a reason why the home team in the finals in game 3 have such a great record ATS and straight up and it’s because in the finals the officials definitely favor the home team. Tonight the calls will be favorable toward the Cavs like they were in the first two games for the Warriors. Not using that as an excuse at all but there is no way Curry will be shooting 10 foul shots in the first quarter again or getting away with a double dribble like he did last game.

This is the highest rated series since the late 90’s so obviously the NBA wants this to be a competitive series. We are just a few years removed from a scandal with the refs. Not saying this game is going to be rigged at all but let’s be honest, the league would love for this series to go 7 games again. It is a little funny that Monty McCutchen is reffing this game, the same guy who reffed Games 3 & 5 of last years finals, two games which were must wins for the Cavs to extend the series to seven.

Again, I’m not a conspiracy theorist or suggesting the NBA is rigged, it’s just the way sports work… let’s be honest at the end of the day the NBA is a huge business (why the players call in “the Show”) and sometimes series get help being extended because of favorable calls for the home team.

Here’s a snippet from this article which explains the home court dynamic in this year’s hockey playoffs (short article that is worth a read).

“In this year’s Stanley Cup final, the Pittsburgh Penguins went up 2-0 in the series before the Nashville Predators tied things up at home. The Predators had the first goal of the series called back on a 50-50 non-offside call that was overturned on replay. Then Nashville went down 3-0 in a hurry thanks in part to a generous five-on-three power play for the Pens.

That stuff happens on the road. Then back at home the Preds got the benefit – at least I felt – and we’re headed back to Pittsburgh all tied up.”

All of that aside, I still like the way the Cavs matchup with the Warriors if everyone shows up to play. They will need all hands on deck to win, meaning Kyrie, Tristan Thompson and the bench players will have to step up, but at home with the series on the line in a position they are very familiar with from last year, I expect them to do just that.

For all prisoners of the moment who want to crown the Warriors already and expect them to sweep this series, you need to remember the Cavs haven’t even had a chance to play a home game yet. The series was 2-0 for the Warriors last year as well, and even though Kevin Durant moved to Golden State, King James hasn’t gone anywhere.

He can’t do it on his own and is going to need every bit of help from Love, Kyrie, and the others, but the Cavs have been in this position before with their backs against the wall and I fully expect them to rise to the occasion again tonight.

I love Lebron to have his biggest game of the playoffs and for Kyrie to put on one of his trademark offensive displays. Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith and the other role players will play much better at home, on both ends of the court, and the Cavs will get their first win of the series and will be within one game of tying this series back up.

Take the Cavs!

NBA Basketball
8:00 PM EST
Rotation #703-704
Cavs +9 over Warriors (3u)
The Warriors made the Cavs look silly in the first game as they scored at will in the paint, but ultimately they just did what they were supposed to do in defending their home court. The Cavs played about as bad as they possibly could have with 20 turnovers and only 4 combined points between Tristan Thompson, Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, and JR Smith. That was a recipe for disaster and about worst case scenario. Everyone is overreacting over one game, but one game doesn’t mean anything. Cleveland is going to have to slow down the pace and use muscle to win this series and they know this. They will adjust and not play nearly as sloppy in game 2. The line jumped two points which is a huge overreaction to one bad game. The Warriors came out a little hungrier, had a little more pep in the their step and the Cavs were lethargic. I’m not going to overreact and be a prisoner of the moment. I think the Cavs come out with an adjusted game plan and have a much better game game 2. Now is the time to hit the future one more time (+475 is tremendous value) because I think the Cavs win this game and this series will be back and forth the rest of the way. Even if they lose, it still doesn’t matter because a series doesn’t start until the home team loses. Cavs were expected to lose the first two games so if they can steal one of the first two on the road it’s a huge bonus. If the Cavs go down 0-2, going home to Game 3 in Cleveland will be the biggest play of the year. That said, as long as they cut down on the turnovers tonight I see them covering this number easily and will have a great shot to steal this one outright as well (sprinkle). Take the Cavs.

NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #701-702
Cavs +7.5 over Warriors (2u)
The NBA needs to address the length of this layoff in the future because this 10 day break has just been awful. I think it is safe to say nobody has much of a clue how this series is going to start out with both teams resting for so long but I have to think it favors the Cavs. The Warriors are definitely motivated and would love nothing more than to sweep the Cavs, but 7.5 points is too many points for them to be laying in a game that the Cavs can easily win outright. Lebron has a history of stealing on of the first two games on the road and when he has extended rest he takes his game to another level. Just because I like the Cavs to win the series doesn’t mean we will be taking them every game but this is a lot of points to give a Cavs team who has the best player in the series and is one of maybe two teams who can shoot with the Warriors. The Cavs have won 6 of their last 10 outright as dogs and I think they have a great chance to steal game 1. This should be a high scoring game that comes down to the wire either way. Take the Cavs.