NBA Summer League 2022: Picks and Predictions
NBA Summer League July 5, 2022 Predictions
What is NBA Summer League?
Every year, all 30 teams in the NBA travel out to California, Salt Lake City, and Las Vegas to participate in the NBA Summer League — an event that has become one of the best developmental showcases in all of professional sports.
The NBA Summer league consists of three parts:
- The California Classic (July 2-5)
- The Salt Lake City Summer League (July 5-7)
- Then the official Las Vegas Summer League Tournament (July 7-17)
Similar to NFL Preseason, these ‘meaningless’ exhibition games are some of the best betting events of the year. The oddsmakers have no idea how to line most of these games so they just set low limits and set lines that are very exploitable for those who are in the know by following college and pro basketball closely.
Why Am I Credible?
I have consistently beat the NBA Summer League since 2018, posting my plays on Twitter, having a documented record of 82-59 (58.2%), +70.2 units over the past three years (no Summer League in 2020 due to COVID).
I also correctly predicted the champion in advance in 2018 and 2019 — cashing out with huge futures in the process.
Let’s not forget I correctly predicted the #NBA Summer League champions in both 2018 and 2019 before they started (no Summer League last year bc of COVID)
Blazers +1200 ✅
Grizzlies +3000 ✅
Futures will be out next week when the Vegas play begins – let’s get this THREEPEAT. 😤 https://t.co/rCealV9Fek
— Quan (@QuanNFL) August 3, 2021
July 5, 2022 Summer League Predictions
The California Classic and Salt Lake City Summer League is a precarious time to bet Summer League as these games are truly just total exhibition games — they don’t count toward the teams record and are an afterthought once they arrive at Vegas.
That said, there is still some betting value to be had at times during the early part of Summer League, but today is a case where all of the teams I am looking to fade are playing each other and all of the teams that are ‘bet on’ for me are playing each other.
Let’s get into my preview and prediction for each game:
Warriors -2 vs. Heat
Both of these teams already played twice and were completely blown out in both games. The Warriors will have the best player on the court in Moses Moody, but with this being the Warriors third game in the California Classic, it is hard to say who will and play and for how long.
The Heat are one of the worst Summer League rosters I have ever seen so I lean the Warriors minus the points here but no bet.
Official Bet: Pass
Lean: Warriors -2
Kings +4 vs. Lakers
Both of these teams are ‘bet on’ for me once we head into official tournament play in Vegas, but this game will be a good litmus test after both beat up on two of the weakest teams in the Summer League in their first two games.
The Kings are the defending Summer League champions but they are without Summer League MVP from last year in Davion Mitchell who is too developed at this point to play in this league. Even without him, they still have plenty of talent to defend their Summer League title. First round pick Keegan Bradley went off for 26 points in his first game, and they have great guard depth and experienced Summer League big man Neemias Queta who is averaging 13 points per game.
The Lakers looked good in their first two games getting great guard play out of Scotty Pippen Jr, Paris Bass and Jay Huff, but I want to see them against a team with comparable talent which the Kings definitely qualify as.
We don’t know who is going to play and who is going to be rested in their third game so we can’t responsibly bet this game, but if forced to pick I think the wrong team is favored regardless.
Lean: Kings +4
Grizzlies +1.5 over Sixers
The Grizzlies’ have historically been a force in the Summer League and they have a loaded roster once again this summer.
|No.||Player||Pos.||Ht.||Wt.||Age||Prior to NBA/Home Country||NBA Exp.|
|7||Santi Aldama||F||6’11”||225 lbs||21||Loyola (MD)/Spain||1|
|22||Keve Aluma||F||6’9″||235 lbs||23||Virginia Tech/USA||R|
|11||Shaq Buchanan||G||6’3″||190 lbs||25||Murray State/USA||1|
|0||Kennedy Chandler||G||6’0″||171 lbs||19||Tennessee/USA||R|
|3||Jake LaRavia||F||6’7″||235 lbs||20||Wake Forest/USA||R|
|6||Kenneth Lofton Jr.||F/C||6’8″||275 lbs||19||Louisiana Tech/USA||R|
|31||Dakota Mathias||G||6’4″||200 lbs||26||Purdue/USA||2|
|13||EJ Onu||F/C||6’11”||240 lbs||22||Shawnee State/USA||R|
|27||David Roddy||F||6’5″||255 lbs||21||Colorado State/USA||R|
|9||Ronaldo Segu||G||6’0″||160 lbs||22||Buffalo/USA||R|
|2||Xavier Tillman Sr.||F/C||6’8″||245 lbs||23||Michigan State/USA||2|
|51||Tremont Waters||G||5’10”||175 lbs||24||LSU/USA||3|
|1||Romeo Weems||F||6’7″||210 lbs||21||DePaul/USA||R|
|8||Ziaire Williams||G/F||6’9″||185 lbs||20||Stanford/USA||R|
|5||Vince Williams Jr.||G/F||6’6″||205 lbs||21||VCU/USA||R|
The Grizzlies have had two players really use the Summer League to make a big leap the past two years with Brandon Clarke parlaying a Summer League MVP into serious rotation minutes in 2019 and Desmond Bane took a MASSIVE leap last season.
They are hoping to get similar progression out of Ziare Williams who is going to be the best player on the floor in this game. They have a lot of depth with Xavier Tillman who got minutes in the rotation last year and are excited to see what they have in rookies Jake LaRavia, Vince Williams, and David Roddy. All three of them shot 38% or better from 3 in their collegiate careers.
The Sixers roster is also pretty loaded. Their most well known player is their first-round pick from last year, high-flyer Jaden Springer but they also have some talented recognizable guards in Julian Champagnie, Grant Riller, Myles Powell, Cassius Winston, and Trevelin Queen who played in the TBT and NBA last season and solid big men in WKU’s Charles Bassey.
|No.||Player||Pos.||Ht.||Wt.||Age||Prior to NBA/Home Country||NBA Exp.|
|23||Charles Bassey||C||6’11”||230 lbs||21||Western Kentucky/USA||1|
|29||Tyler Bey||F||6’7″||215 lbs||24||Colorado/USA||1|
|16||Charlie Brown Jr.||G||6’6″||199 lbs||25||St. Joseph’s (PA)/USA||3|
|5||Julian Champagnie||G/F||6’8″||215 lbs||21||St. John’s/USA||R|
|28||Malik Ellison||G||6’6″||215 lbs||23||Hartford/USA||R|
|41||Michael Foster Jr.||F||6’8″||250 lbs||19||G League Ignite/USA||R|
|7||Isaiah Joe||G||6-3||174 lbs||23||Arkansas/USA||2|
|36||Aminu Mohammed||G||6’5″||210 lbs||20||Georgetown/USA||R|
|33||Filip Petrusev||F||6-11||235 lbs||22||Anadolu Efes S.K./Serbia||R|
|35||Myles Powell||G||6-1||205 lbs||24||Seton Hall/USA||1|
|9||Trevelin Queen||G||6’6″||190 lbs||25||New Mexico State/USA||1|
|44||Paul Reed||F||6’8″||218 lbs||23||DePaul/USA||2|
|26||Grant Riller||G||6’0″||195 lbs||24||College of Charleston/USA||1|
|45||Fred Sims Jr.||G||6’4″||193 lbs||25||Chicago State/USA||R|
|19||Justin Smith||F||6’6″||215 lbs||23||Indiana/USA||R|
|11||Jaden Springer||G||6’3″||205 lbs||19||Tennessee/USA||1|
|27||Cassius Winston||G||6’1″||185 lbs||24||Michigan State/USA||2|
Guard play wins in the Summer League and this is the game that I am most looking forward to watching as both teams are loaded at guard.
The Grizzlies opened at -2.5 and all of the money has come in on the Sixers moving this line 3.5 points which leads me to believe that some people know that the Grizzlies may not be playing Williams and Tillman tonight, but if they play I will be looking to add a live bet on the Grizzlies.
Official Bet: Pass pre-game but will look to bet Grizzlies +1 live if Williams/Tillman play.
Thunder -5 over Jazz
Lean: Thunder -5. If Giddy is officially announced in, will be betting this.
Colts -2.5 (BUY HALF POINT)
Warriors @ Rockets Game 6
9:00 PM EST
Rockets -7 over Warriors (3u)
James Harden O34.5 (1u)
All of the talk in the media about how the Warriors will be fine without Durant and how he was a luxury not a necessity is absolute nonsense. Yes, this is the same core group with Curry, Thompson, Green and Iguodala who won 73 games in 2016 but that was three years ago and even though the core is the same (albeit 3 years older) the team as a whole is far worse. I have been saying it all series long but there is no debate that the Warriors bench is not of NBA quality. Now take away the best player in the world in Durant and the series takes on a totally different dynamic. There is a reason why the Warriors are the biggest underdogs tonight they have ever been in the Steve Kerr era. The Rockets were in this same situation last year when they lost their super star in Chris Paul the last few games which shifted the series in favor of the Warriors, now this year it is reversed. The Rockets weren’t able to take advantage of Kevin Durant’s injury in Game 5 but that changes tonight. Without KD on the floor the Warriors won’t be able to use their “Death Lineup” and will have to start a washed up Livingston or Looney. Capella who has been next to useless this series thus far should dominate these next two games as the pick and roll lob will be open all day and the Rockets will be able to switch everything without having to worry about the Warriors best defender in KD. Houston has been a mediocre road team but has been an absolute force at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The role players have struggled in Oracle but have been excellent at home and I look for more of the same tonight. Typically I make it a rule never fade a team in the NBA in their next game after losing their star player as the rest of the team steps up even more in his absence which is the only reason this isn’t an even bigger play. But in a Game 6 elimination game with their backs against the wall, the Rockets will be giving maximum effort themselves as well so it negates that edge for the Warriors tonight. It’s now or never for the Rockets, Harden and Paul have been known as perennial chokers their entire career and tonight is their chance to finally exorcise that stigma. I’m expecting a huge performance from the Rockets, and James Harden in particular. If the Rockets can get hot from 3 this game is probably going to get out of hand at some point and Kerr should call off the dogs and preserve their energy for an epic Game 7 on Sunday. Take Houston.
NBA 5/8 Package
8:00 PM EST
Sixers 1Q PK (1u)
Sixers +2 (3u)
Joel Embiid O21.5 (1u)
The 76ers were just destroyed in Toronto in humiliating fashion last game but they are a completely different team at home. Yes, they did lose Game 4 here but that took a herculean effort by Leonard and prior to that their three home playoff wins were by 22, 22, and 21 points. Philadelphia is 34-12 at home this season and as the home team have won seven of the last ten against the Raptors. Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back horrific shooting games, going just 66-for-161 in the two games. At home the role players always play much better than on the road and I think they will shoot the ball much better in their own gym with their home fans behind them. It’s no secret that Toronto has been a huge choke team in the playoffs over the past several years and as good as Kawhi and company have looked the past two games I just don’t think they are going to close this one out on the road tonight. It’s not as if Philadelphia is some overmatched underdog that is just hoping and praying for one more game. I actually think the Sixers are the more talented team in this series. They are going to play with the purpose and desperation of a team that knows that it is on the brink of ending its season. Losing an elimination game on their home court would be devastating to their players and the fans. This is a very talented team, but they’ve struggled partly because of the opponent but also because their best player, Joel Embiid, has struggled with a respiratory issue. By all accounts he is at 90% health or better so I love for him at home to get some extra adrenaline from the crowd and have a huge game. Home teams facing elimination at 6-1 against the 1Q line as well this playoffs so like that as a 1u play as well. Look for the Sixers to fend off elimination tonight and force a game 7. Take Philadelphia.
10:35 PM EST
Blazers -3 -120 over Nuggets (3u)
Damian Lillard O28 (1u)
CJ McCollum O21.5 (1u)
After a loss in 4 overtimes this young Denver team could have packed it in but instead they have comeback and looked like a polished veteran team. They humiliated Portland in Game 5 however the Blazers like the Sixers have a huge home court edge and the Nuggets aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home in the altitude. I look for that home court edge to be on full display tonight and I fully expect this series to go seven games. These two are very evenly matched. But Portland is playing in full desperation mode with their backs against the wall and I expect Lillard and McCollum to have monster games tonight. The Blazers have not shot the ball well the last few games making just 10 of 37 3-pointers and 16 of 30 free throws while also getting killed on the glass. The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings between these two and I expect this building to be rocking tonight. In a close out game it is going to be tough for the Nuggets to win this on the road. The Blazers have been 16-4 ATS this year after a double digit loss, they should win this game by a spread covering margin setting up for a great Game 7 on Sunday. Take Portland.
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