Series ATS Record: 6-0-1 (+24u)
warriors-rockets-game-4
Series ATS Record: 3-0-1 (+15u)
NBA Playoffs
9:35 PM EST
Rotation #503-504
Rockets ML +100 over Warriors (5u)
For the first time ever, Steve Kerr has been playing the “Death Lineup” or the Hampton’s Five early on in series this year which is leading to every Warriors starter is playing an additional 10+ minutes per game compared to the regular season. These extra minutes are starting to add up and take their toll. Did the Warriors quit the other night with 20 seconds left on the clock or are the starters exhausted? The Warriors bench is awful so it’s not like they have much of a choice, the starters are going to need to play extended minutes the rest of the playoffs. The longer this series goes the more it helps the Rockets. We saw Curry miss a layup and a dunk late in the game. Curry is also dealing with a finger injury, but it seems like fatigue has crept in. The Warriors starters could be up any given amount and will lose that lead once the bench steps in. The Warriors made 42.4 percent of their threes and outscored Houston from the foul line in Game 3, but still lost. They are just getting nothing from their bench. It will take a monumental effort from the Warriors to win the title this year with the bench they have. This series has seven games written all over it. Houston is a great home team and will tie this series tonight in their own building. Take Houston.
4/30 NBA MAX
Series Record: 1-0-1 (+5u)
NBA Playoffs
10:35 PM EST
Rotation #573-574
Rockets +6 -115 ($500)
Writeup coming.
NBA Finals Game 5
NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #709-710
Cavs +9 (2 units)
Cavs ML +280 (3 units)
Lebron O34.5 -130 (1 unit)
This Golden State team isn’t nearly as mentally tough or physically as tough as people make them out to be. This is a team who I don’t think knows how to close (1-4 vs. Cavs in closeout games) and if you can set the tone early and let them know they aren’t going to be able to run you over early, good things can start happening like we saw last game. The Cavs have been playing better every game, especially on the defensive side where they have been a lot cleaner and making fewer mistakes. You really can’t simulate how the Warriors play in practice so it’s taken them time to learn how to contest their shots and knowing when to switch and not to switch. Golden State relies so much on the three that when they are off like last game (11 for 39) they aren’t going to have a tough time scoring enough points to beat this Cavs team who have Lebron and Kyrie who are going to combine for 70+ a game. The three ball is the first shot to start to go when nerves kick in and all of the pressure in the world is on the Warriors this game. Curry and Thompson’s legs are starting to look a little heavy and I wouldn’t be surprised if they struggle again tonight. The collapse talks have already begun and they already said they view this game being as important as Game 7 because if they lose this and have to go back to Cleveland only up 1 game, look out. If Cavs jump out to an early lead, it is going to be very interesting to see how these Warriors react (my prediction is not well).
Even though Cavs were ultimately blown out in the first two games they were right there only down three at half in game 2 until Lebron inexplicably only took six shots in the second half. Lebron can’t disappear again in the second half like he did in Game 1 and Game 2, but with it all on the line, there’s no way we see that passive of a Lebron again.
Cleveland imposed their will last game and finally got their confidence going in what could have been the turning points in this series and I think that carries over to this game. The Cavs have been here before last year and won two games in Oakland in this same exact scenario after getting smoked in the first two. KD or no KD, I love them to win this game and extend this series. Look for the Big 3 of Cleveland to combine for 90+ again with Lebron keeping them in it with his best game of the finals yet (40+ points) and Kyrie finishing it at the end to force a Game 6. Like I said before last game, call me crazy, I still think Cavs take this series, am extremely confident they win this game and am rolling over my bet from last game to get into the green for these finals. Take the Cavs spread, ML, and Bron over.
NBA Finals Game 4
NBA Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #707-708
Cavs ML over Warriors (3u)
Maybe I am delusional and this will go down as an all time terrible call thinking the Cavs had any chance this series but all it takes is one win from Cleveland to get people talking and for some small hope to be talked about over the weekend. The Cavs had it last game until one of the worst finishes ever where they went 0-8 in the last 3:10 and lost a game they never should have lost. I expect Cleveland to finish stronger tonight and to get themselves at least one win in this series. Take the Cavs.
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