9:00 PM EST
Cavs +9 (2 units)
Cavs ML +280 (3 units)
Lebron O34.5 -130 (1 unit)
This Golden State team isn’t nearly as mentally tough or physically as tough as people make them out to be. This is a team who I don’t think knows how to close (1-4 vs. Cavs in closeout games) and if you can set the tone early and let them know they aren’t going to be able to run you over early, good things can start happening like we saw last game. The Cavs have been playing better every game, especially on the defensive side where they have been a lot cleaner and making fewer mistakes. You really can’t simulate how the Warriors play in practice so it’s taken them time to learn how to contest their shots and knowing when to switch and not to switch. Golden State relies so much on the three that when they are off like last game (11 for 39) they aren’t going to have a tough time scoring enough points to beat this Cavs team who have Lebron and Kyrie who are going to combine for 70+ a game. The three ball is the first shot to start to go when nerves kick in and all of the pressure in the world is on the Warriors this game. Curry and Thompson’s legs are starting to look a little heavy and I wouldn’t be surprised if they struggle again tonight. The collapse talks have already begun and they already said they view this game being as important as Game 7 because if they lose this and have to go back to Cleveland only up 1 game, look out. If Cavs jump out to an early lead, it is going to be very interesting to see how these Warriors react (my prediction is not well).
Even though Cavs were ultimately blown out in the first two games they were right there only down three at half in game 2 until Lebron inexplicably only took six shots in the second half. Lebron can’t disappear again in the second half like he did in Game 1 and Game 2, but with it all on the line, there’s no way we see that passive of a Lebron again.
Cleveland imposed their will last game and finally got their confidence going in what could have been the turning points in this series and I think that carries over to this game. The Cavs have been here before last year and won two games in Oakland in this same exact scenario after getting smoked in the first two. KD or no KD, I love them to win this game and extend this series. Look for the Big 3 of Cleveland to combine for 90+ again with Lebron keeping them in it with his best game of the finals yet (40+ points) and Kyrie finishing it at the end to force a Game 6. Like I said before last game, call me crazy, I still think Cavs take this series, am extremely confident they win this game and am rolling over my bet from last game to get into the green for these finals. Take the Cavs spread, ML, and Bron over.