New York Giants vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS (+1.5)
Big game here for the Giants as they are still right in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC East even at 5-7. You can call it a must-win game, but that is one of the most overplayed (and squarest) angles to take in sports betting. If a team is in a must win situation that usually means they are just not that good, and that is certainly the case with the Giants. This is a team that has lost 3 of their last 4 and have been finding ways to lose. Even though Eli is historically his best in the face of adversity, this is not a team that I want to back on the road.
Giants offensive line is banged up (it was just announced Flowers is active) but he won’t be at 100%. Dolphins have a talented defensive front who should give them problems. I think Vernon has a big night and Suh might even be motivated for once playing on prime time.
On the other side, Miami is in their second week with the new OC Taylor who is committed to getting back to running the ball (gashed a solid Baltimore run D for 137 yards at 5.7 ypa last week).
If Miami can get their running game going like they should, that will open up big opportunities against the Giants terrible pass D. The G-Men are allowing 315 yards per game and have easily the worst secondary outside of New Orleans. Even though he is no world beater, Tannehill is be very capable of putting up some big numbers against a terrible defense, like he did vs. an unmotivated Texans squad back in Week 7. Giants will have no answer for Landry who is going to be motivated to out duel his old LSU buddy Beckham.
Unlike the Miami, Giants are one dimensional on offense and have a hard time running the ball on anybody. Beckham will get his for sure, but without establishing the run Miami will be able to get some good pressure on Manning. One prop I like tonight is Total Sacks for Miami OVER 2 (EVEN).
I think the wrong team is favored here and I actually have the line as Miami -3, so we are getting some value with the spread as well.
Also there is an insane amount of money on the G-Men which only helps our cause after a ton of favorites (SEA, GB, NE, CARO) all covered yesterday.
I see Miami getting up for this game under the bright lights on Prime Time and beating the G-Men straight up, also like the OVER alot too, we are getting a lot of value given Miami’s recent struggles on offense, but NYG’s defense is really that bad.
I like the over but would rather take the tease here, as I like both sides straight up as well.
Dolphins 31, Giants 23
Dolphins +1.5 (4 units)
Dolphins +7.5 / Over 41.5 (2 units)