Chiefs ML (15u)
Chiefs over 49ers
I am very surprised that a lot of the sports talk over the past two weeks was all about how the 49ers are the more complete team, how they have the much better defense and defense wins championships and how many people are comparing this game to the Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl where the Seahawks defense was able to shut down the potent Broncos passing attack. It is really not comparable at all in my opinion. This Kansas City offense is far more explosive than that Denver offense was and this 49ers defense is no where near the level of that Seahawks defense.
Speaking of defenses, yes, I know the 49ers finished the year with the #1 overall defense, but the Chiefs are not that far behind at #9. Everyone is giving the 49ers pass rushers all of the hype, but the Chiefs defensive line is almost as strong, the defensive lines are actually very, very close. The 9ers had 57 sacks on the year (post season included) but the Chiefs are right behind them with 54. The disparity between these defense is not nearly as much as you would think listening to sports talk radio the past two weeks. And let’s not act like this 9ers defense is an all time great unit, it is far, far from it. Yes they have been dominant in the playoffs but they played two very overrated teams in the Vikings and Packers. Let’s not forget that in the final 8 weeks of the season they gave up 23+ points in seven of those eight games, including 31 to the Rams and 46 to the Saints, the Chiefs offense is far better than both. The 49ers were the best in the NFL at limiting deep throws this season, but they haven’t faced an offense with the speed that the Chiefs have. San Fran plays zone coverage nearly 80 percent of the time and Patrick Mahomes dissects zone defenses. If they play man, Mahomes has shown a great ability to be able to pick up big chunks with his legs. He didn’t run much in the regular season to preserve his health but in the playoffs with everything on the line he averaged 50 yards rushing per game. San Fran has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this year, Russel Wilson should have been 2-0 against them, rookie Kyler Murray gave them issues and they lost against Lamar Jackson. With this KC offense it is going to be pick your poison, the 49ers are not shutting this offense down.
The big disparity in this game is at the games most important position, quarterback. Jimmy G has been impressive throughout the regular season and here in the playoffs, but he hasn’t had to do much of anything in the playoffs. You can’t penalize him for that but there is a reason that Shannahan has utilized a rush heavy approach, he knows that Jimmy G has the penchant for making bad decisions at times like he did early on in the Vikings game. On the other side, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL right now – period. This isn’t about stats, or passer rating or any other numbers – it’s the eyeball test, and Mahomes is one guy I absolutely trust not to let the pressure get to him in a game of this magnitude. We’ve seen Mahomes and the Chiefs respond extremely well to adversity here in the postseason while San Fran hasn’t faced any adversity….yet. And I’m not convinced they’ll respond well to adversity here.
It goes without saying that Andy Reid with time to prepare is one of the best bets in sports, and with all of the extra time and with all of the weapons he has to exploit mismatches, there is just no way I see the Chiefs losing this game. They will certainly get their points and it will be up to Jimmy G and the 9ers offense to keep pace. I had the rated Chiefs as the best team in the NFL all season and if Patrick Mahomes didn’t get injured there is a very real chance we could be talking about a 17-0 team right now. This is a team who has won and covered 8 straight games, you almost never see that. I don’t like to be cliche but this team reminds me of the Warriors in their prime or of the Villanova team the year they won the Championship where they just steamrolled every team through the tournament and won the Championship easily. I don’t think this game is necessarily going to be a wire to wire sweat free win, in fact I won’t be shocked if the Chiefs are down after the first quarter. But they are the bets 2Q team in the league and I look for them to take the lead in the 2Q and not look back. It will be up to Jimmy G to keep pace with the Chiefs offense and even though he was able to outduel Brees, Mahomes is a totally different animal with his rushing ability and I just don’t see it happening. This is my favorite Super Bowl since the Broncos beat the Panthers, Chiefs will be holding the Lombardi tonight!
Damian Williams Over 29.5 receiving Yards
Deebo Samuel OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Under 2.5 Players with a Passing Attempt
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 239.5 Passing Yards
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 29.5 Passing Attempts