NFL Week 3 - Beat The Book Handicapping

NFL Football
4:25 PM EST
Rotation #477-478
Giants +6 over Bucs

The youth movement in the NFL is officially here, with at least 18 of the starting QBs this week under the age of 26. This is going to lead to a lot of “wait and see” games as we see how these new players adapt into their starting roles, but I do like two of the young guns quite a bit this week, Daniel Jones being one of them. When he was drafted and getting bashed in the media, I actually tweeted an unpopular take that I really loved the pick (I had him mocked to the Giants as well and thought that was the correct pick) and that has aged pretty well so far with Jones looking very solid in the preseason. Now of course, that was only the preseason and means next to nothing when it comes to starting real games, but my point is I think Daniel Jones is going to be a great QB and is by no means a downgrade from the decrepit Eli Manning.

The bottom line is I could do this write-up in a single sentence: the Bucs can’t be laying nearly a touchdown to anybody right now. Their offense is not one who is primed to go up and down the field on anyone, even the Giants defense which has looked putrid in the first two weeks, ranking #21 in the NFL in yards per rush and #25 in yards per pass attempt while facing two mediocre defenses over the first two weeks of the season. All Florida teams do have a built in home field advantage when playing in September in the hot Florida sun, but the late afternoon start time mitigates that advantage, at least somewhat.

The one bright spot for the Bucs is that their defense has played surprisingly well in each of their first two ballgames — a sharp contrast to the Giants – hence this inflated pointspread. That is my only concern in this game, the Giants defense against the Cowboys was the worst performance I have ever seen in the NFL, but that was more about effort than talent, the Giants do have Pro Bowl players in all three units including the defense. With Eli finally benched and an actual competent QB under center I expect a much better effort and the fact remains the Bucs offense is severely limited.

It’s not like the Giants don’t have offensive talent on this team, they have a top 2 running back, and top 5 tight end, and plenty of serviceable talent at the wideout position. I’m expecting an energized effort from the Giants offensively here in Daniel Jones first career start. Eli has been awful for years and his red zone pick last week before halftime last week was truly demoralizing. Jones showed all kinds of “‘bet-on” potential both at Duke and in the preseason and at 0-2, fighting for their season to be relevant, I’m expecting to see plenty of fight from the road underdog in this one. Jones needs to limit the turnovers (fumbles especially) but if he can do that, I look for this to be a battle throughout and a little sprinkle on the moneyline isn’t a bad play either. Take the Giants.

NFL Football
4:25 PM EST
Rotation #481-482
Seahawks -4 over Saints
Maybe this is the trap game of the week, but I just cannot wrap my head around how this line is this low. Seattle has my #1 rated homefield advantage in the NFL, worth four points alone. There is no way that the Seahawks led by Russel Wilson is only a half point better than the Saints led by Teddy Bridgewater, I need to see way more out of him before I can buy into that idea that he is only a 4 point downgrade from Brees. Bridgewater gets all of this hype as being one of the best backup QB’s in the league, but I strongly disagree with that. He has not looked good at all since his surgery, struggling in the preseason and was absolutely atrocious in his sole start last year in Week 17 where he mustered 118 total yards the entire game. This is now his first road start since 2015 and will be in a very hostile environment. I fully expect Sean Payton to throw the kitchen sink at the Hawks in this one and there is already talk of using two quarterback sets and I’m sure he will have some good trick plays up his sleeve, but you don’t win football games in the NFL running a gimmick offense like that. The Seahawks are getting healthier defensively as well, with Ziggy Ansah set to make his season debut, which will only strengthen the front four which already got a big boost from the newly acquired Clowney last week.

Seattle at home when they are laying 6 or less points under Wilson are 28-10-2 ATS, have won 15 straight home games in September and are 12-3 ATS during that stretch. I get it that the Seahawks offense hasn’t look great so far this season (despite being 2-0) and they had the benefit of playing against a Pittsburgh team without Big Ben last week, but how this line isn’t at least a touchdown is beyond me. My only concern in this game is the Seahawks offensive line is still an issue and the Saints should be able to get pressure with their front four, but Wilson is the best there is at making plays on the run and should be able to do enough to win this game. I am willing to take the bait and fade Bridgewater in this road start against a superior quarterback. I fully expect the Hawks to win this game so covering a four point spread isn’t asking much at all. Take the Seahawks.

NFL Football
4:25 PM EST
Rotation #477-478
Steelers +7 over 49ers
This is a great opportunity for a “buy low, sell high” type game. The Steelers have looked putrid in their first two games and their defense is a concern, but this is just way too many points for a veteran team with their season on the brink against an overrated opponent. The Niners have looked very impressive so far, especially last week, but now they are in the role they are very unfamiliar with, a large home favorite. Levi Stadium is hardly a homefield edge, with the second worse homefield advantage only second to the Chargers in their soccer stadium. The 9ers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games, the last time they covered as a home favorite was during their Super Bowl year under Jim Harbaugh. All World left tackle Joe Staley is also out this week which is a big concern for Jimmy G who struggles with getting the ball out on time and with fumbling issues. The Niners at 2-0 are impressive but they played two poor teams so far. They are sitting pretty compared to the 0-2 Steelers who’s season is very much on the line in this game, they lose this they can just about kiss their post season hopes goodbye.

I also absolutely love the fact the Steelers just traded a #1 draft pick for CB Minkah Fitzpatrick, a clear message to the locker room that they are still very serious about making the playoffs THIS YEAR. Mason Rudolph has been in their system and he’s shown plenty of guts and guile in his career – I still remember him leading Oklahoma State to the outright upset win at Oklahoma in his second career start, as a freshman. He looked good last week against a better defense than he will be facing today and even sans Bell and aB Rudolph still has plenty of weapons at his disposal including former Oklahoma State teammate and deep-ball threat James Washington who is primed to have a big day this afternoon. Mike Tomlin’s hasn’t lost a single road game by more than a TD since 2016 – I look for the Steelers to hang tough in a game that comes down the wire, Pitt ML is also very live in this one as well. Take the Steelers.

NFL Football
4:25 PM EST
Rotation #485-486
Panthers ML +120 over Cardinals

The Panthers… I had such high hopes for this team coming into this season and through the first two weeks they have been an utter disappointment. All reports out of Carolina camps all offseason were that Cam Newton was healthy and primed for a bounce back season — as we all have witnessed this ended up being a huge lie, Cam is anything but healthy and has been atrocious, I am very glad to see him shut down and am hoping it’s for the rest of the season. This is still an offense that is loaded with talent and Cam with his injuries was unable to get the ball to the playmakers, that game last Thursday Night was brutal to watch him miss throw after throw. The Panthers, even with a clearly not right Cam Newton, were the original favorites in this game. Is an upright and healthy Kyle Allen really going to be worse than the Newton we saw last Thursday night? No way, he is going to be a definite upgrade. He is far from a world beater but he is a very capable backup and he has had success in the preseason and the limited action he saw as a starter, he led the Panthers to a victory last year against the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints. I still am not sold at all on this Arizona team, they were dead to rights in Week 1 until the Lions pissed away that 24-6 fourth quarter lead and last week caught the Ravens sleeping after their rout of the Dolphins and looking ahead to the massive Chiefs showdown this week which very well may decide which team gets the bye. Call me delusional but in a suddenly very wide open NFC South with Brees now sidelined, the Panthers are still very live to win this division. Obviously, a win here today is a must and I look for this veteran team to respond. If they lose this game we will not back them again this year but this is a great spot to take the superior team at plus money against a very overrated and not very talented opponent. Take the Panthers.

Vikings / Packers Teaser

I actually like both of these teams at their point spread as well, but Aaron Rodgers may be a little banged up, he seemed off after the first quarter last week so even though I love the idea of fading the Broncos anemic offense and extremely washed Joe Flacco on the road, I can see this game being close. I see no scenario where the Packers lose, I actually think if Rodgers is even 75% this will be a blowout. The same goes for the Vikings, they are a Super Contest play and this is another game that should be a rout. The Raiders are playing in an early start and Jon Gruden has an awful road record in these early away starts. This is a get right game for the Vikes who should be able to throw and run all over the Raiders horrendous and banged up defense, but at a 9 point spread, even if they are up 14 points, the backdoor will be open so teasing this down to just winning by a field goal is the safer play in a week where the card seems like it could potentially be loaded with landmines.