February 29, 2024
Plays will be posted an hour before tip of first game.
All plays are 2 units unless otherwise noted.
9:20 PM EST
Virginia ML -120 over Texas Tech (3u)
Late into the tournament the lines start to get super sharp and it comes down to luck whether or not you win or a lose a game in most cases. This game is likely going to come down who makes a clutch shot or gets a call to go their way like many of the games did in the Elite 8 and beyond. That said, there are a few edges that point toward the Virginia side.
Both of these teams are obviously elite level defensive teams but I do believe Virginia’s efficiency on the offensive end, along with keeping Tech out of the paint will be the difference in the game. UVA gets in trouble when teams go on crazy 3-point hot streaks. Purdue made 14 of 32 and pushed the Cavs to the brink. Auburn was held in check from behind the arc most of the game and trailed by 10 points with just a few minutes to go in the game on Saturday, then nailed 4 straight 3’s to take the lead. Tech likes to do the majority of their damage inside the arc. In fact, only 35.6% of all their shots are taken from behind the 3-point line. That’s good news for Virginia’s pack-line defense.
The Cavs allow teams to pass the basketball from side to side up top, but they slam the door when it comes to opposing offenses getting in the paint. I do expect this approach to cause Tech to struggle on the offensive end. UVA has been the much better rebounding team so far in the tourney and the should have the advantage on the glass tonight, especially with Owens at less than 100%. The Cavs have plenty of players who can win a game at both ends of the floor, including Kyle Guy who has found his shot at the perfect time. Guy was 8 of 38 through the first 3 games of the tourney, including 3 of 26 from behind the arc but he’s warmed up over the last 2 games. There is nothing bad to say about Chris Beard and Texas Tech, this has been the hottest team ATS in the tournament. That is the only thing that is creating value in this game. Virginia is 2-3 ATS and should be 1-4 ATS if not for the most miraculous cover in Tournament history against Purdue. My Power Ratings have UVA as 5 points better than Tech on a neutral floor and this look ahead line was -3. The fact that Tech has rolled through the Tournament while UVA has been winning by the skin of their teeth results in a lot of line value on the UVA side. A 5 point spread translates to a 68% chance of victory, so the numbers really favor the Hoos here, especially on the money line as another 1 point Virginia win shouldn’t shock anyone at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this be a close game throughout with the Cavs even down at half, and if that happens we will definitely hop on UVA for a few more units at the half way mark. Take Virginia.
Virginia -1 (3u)
Virginia PK (3u)