I was really looking forward to going BIG on Alexa Grasso but then she missed weight and it came out that she had a urinary tract infection so she decided to just not cut weight because of it. Not a big deal but now she is on antibiotics which could negatively impact her cardio. That being said she has been training in Mexico City where there is serious elevation and Markos just arrived a few days ago so that should even out. Everything else considered Grasso is a much better fighter and this line should be -200 or higher. The fact that Vegas didn’t adjust the line leads me to believe that they don’t see the infection as a deciding factor but to be safe I am just putting her on parlays, no individual plays. If it comes down to Grasso for the parlays I am planning on hedging a little to ensure a winning night if it comes to that (more on that below).
My top two plays are Jouban and Hermansson. Hermansson is -240 so rather than lay juice I am just parlaying with Jouban.
UFC Fight Night 114 Official Card
Henry Briones +190 (1 unit)
Jouban/Hermansson +122 (2 units)
Underdog Parlay: Morales/Soukhamthath +361 (1 unit)
Jouban/Hermansson/Grasso +253 (1 unit)
6 Teamer “Lottery Ticket” +2270
If it comes down to Grasso to cash the 6 teamer which I love our chances of, I’ll be hedging on Markos +135 for 5 units since am slightly worried about Grasso being on antibiotics even though I still do fully expect her to win.
My lean is on Sergio Pettis for the main event but that is a fight that is just too close to call so passing.