June 9, 2023
2018 NCAAF ATS Record (47-33-4)
2018 Bowl Record (12-12-2)
Plays will be posted an hour before tip of first game, typically 6PM EST.
All plays are 2 units unless otherwise specified.
Penn State Over 46 (1u)
Mississippi State -1 / PSU Over 40 (3u)
Iowa is well coached but they are way too predictable. They run two tight end sets and you know exactly where the ball is going. Well the problem today is Noah Fant will not play so now Mississippi State can double TJ Hockenson and really limit this offense. Mississippi State has been great on defense this year and will slow Iowa down. The Big 10 was bad this year and are really getting exposed in these bowl games. Purdue was destroyed by Auburn and Michigan was destroyed by Florida, don’t be surprised if this game is another case of an SEC team destroying a Big 10 team. Joe Moorehead is a great coach and put up a ton of points when he was offensive coordinator at Penn State against this very defense. This is a big stepping stone for this first year coaching staff. Only reason I don’t just play the spread here is this Mississippi State offense can be extremely stagnant at times and Iowa with their style of play has the tendency to hang around and I don’t want to get backdoored. Probably won’t be needed as the Bulldogs should win this comfortably, but them just to win the game at -1 is the first leg of this teaser.
Second leg is the Penn State over. I like Penn State in this game as well but once again this is an SEC/Big 10 matchup and there is no question that PSU is overrated. One thing they do have is a well balanced, explosive offense. The Nittany Lions do a great job of pushing the pace and tempo, and they’ll turn this one into a track meet pretty quickly. This game should go well over the total, I expect this game to be in the mid 50’s.
1:00 PM EST
UCF TT Over 24.5
UCF has been covering machines in their bowl game and I do lean them to cover this game, but without McKenzie Milton I just don’t trust them quite enough against a very talented LSU team who if they show up motivated should be able to dominate the game in the trenches win this game by margin. Darriel Mack Jr. has been more than suitable in the backup role and with weeks of practice he should be very ready to face this LSU defense that is missing starters all across the backfield and front seven. Star cornerback Greedy Williams is sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft and starter Kristian Fulton and backup Kelvin Joseph are both out with injuries. The defensive line will also be without two key pieces and with so many defensive players out for LSU, communication could be an issue. UCF plays fast, has an explosive offense, and there is no questioning their motivation in this one. Against a shell of the defense from the regular season I love for them to score 30+ points in this one. Once again, if you can’t get a team total with your book the over should be fine as well, I just don’t like having to rely on teams to show up and score points who have questionable motivation. Take the over.
5:00 PM EST
Ohio State/Washington Over 56.5
As much as I would have loved to have taken the Buckeyes in this game to cover in Urban Meyer’s Swan Song, the fact that the whole world is on them and the line hasn’t budged is enough to keep me away. Vegas is begging for Buckeye money and that is just a road I don’t want to go down in a marquee game like this. Instead we will play the total as I see this going over pretty easily. This number has been dropping due to reports of high winds but I like it at 56.5 and below, wind won’t effect these teams. All of the talk in this game is about the Buckeye’s explosive passing offense vs. the stingy Washington pass defense but what about Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin versus a very susceptible Buckeye defense? OSU has been terrible defensively allowing five of their last six opponents to score 24 or more points while gashing them through the air and on the ground. Jake Browning has always choked in big games and he will have to make some plays but Gaskin should be able to help him out by picking up big chunk plays on the ground. Washington is going to put up points in this game for sure. Yes, Washington has a great passing defense that has only given up 9 passing touchdowns all year but they play in the putrid PAC-12 and have yet to see a team with the speed that Ohio State has. Washington also has an absolute stud LB in Ben Burr-Kirven who is a tackling machine but the speed differential between these two teams is huge, the Ohio State running backs will be able to run right past the slow Huskie linebackers. The crossing routes Ohio State runs are unguardable, Haskins is going to have success picking this defense apart and the wind isn’t going to effect those short passes. Ohio State is going to go all out for Meyer in his final game, on paper this should be a double digit win for the Buckeyes but I see a 41-30 type of game, lots of points will be scored in this one. Take the over.