NBA
8:00 PM EST
Rotation #519-520
Celtics -4 over Wizards (3u)
This series has been a bizarre one where the home team has completed dominated every game all year. In the playoffs nothing has changed, with both teams winning easily by double digits in both home games. The Wiz are the better team but have an awful bench who really struggle on the road. After two back to back blowout losses I look for the Celtics to regroup and bounce back with another big home win here with Isiah Thomas going off again and some role players stepping up as well. Take the Celtics.
5/8 NBA
NBA
8:00 PM EST
Rotation #707-708
Spurs -5.5 over Rockets (2u)
Rockets/Spurs Over 214.5 (Parlay O214.5 with Spurs ML 1.5u to win 2.6 units)
Random tidbit:
After loss last night and in an attempt to get out of this frustrating funk, this morning I took some time to go back and review every game this playoffs because it seemed like the spread has barely mattered in any of these games. By it not mattering I mean the favorite has been winning in blowouts and the spread hasn’t been a sweat or the underdogs are winning outright. Well, after looking into it, out of the 56 games played this post-season, the spread has only mattered in 11 games. 80% of time time it was as easy as picking the winner and letting the spread take care of itself. Knowing those stats, it was foolish to think the Jazz would lose but cover, that just hasn’t been the case this playoffs. Granted now that we are almost in the conference finals I’m sure the spread will start mattering more, but in these semi final games, it’s really been as simple as picking who wins the game.
It’s always risky betting on a Rockets game because you are really betting on how they are going to shoot from 3. When they shoot over 40% they are undefeated this year and when they shoot under 30% they have only won one game. I can’t see them shooting 40% in back to back games especially in San Antonio after Pop makes adjustments, so I definitely like the Spurs to win today which makes taking the spread easy.
The Spurs defense has really struggled and I still expect Houston to shoot in the low 30%’s from 3, so they are going to score some points. Houston is going to have to go small with Nene out and their game plan is going to be to outscore the Spurs, so there should be plenty of points in this one as well. Take the Spurs and parlay the over with Spurs ML.
5/8 #NBA
NBA
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #701-702
Jazz +9 over Warriors (2u)
The easy knee jerk reaction to this game is just to lay the points with the Warriors who have won the first three games by 10+ and assume they will take care of business in the final close out game. Favorites have been money lately and many are comparing this game to the Cavs/Raptors series and expect the Warriors to follow suit, but not so fast. What people are forgetting is the West is much better than the East and the Jazz are fully capable of winning this game if they play a complete game. They were up 9 late in the 3rd until Durant took over and the Warriors had some luck go their way. The Jazz played horribly in Game 3 (I’ve never seen so many missed layups in my life) and still just barely missed the cover, so I look for them to play much better today. The only thing that scares me here is that the way the Jazz lost Game 3 may have crushed their spirits. I’m banking that’s not the case and Utah will do everything it can to try and get a win tonight in front of their home crowd, even when they know they aren’t winning this series. There’s a sense of pride in not getting swept, especially on your home floor. There’s definitely plenty of reason to think Utah can cover this spread, if they show up to play. While it’s coming in losing efforts, their defense is giving Golden State problems. The Warriors have jumped out to big first quarter leads but have then been outplayed in all of these games. If Utah can afford not being down double digits at the end of the first they will have a shot to win this game. In a close out game at home where this Jazz team plays very well and will be playing for pride, I just think this spread is way too high tonight with the way Utah defends the 3 point line. The Warriors should get the win but the Jazz will make them earn it. I look for this game to be a 4-5 point win for the Warriors. Take the Jazz
5/7 #NBA
NBA
3:30 PM EST
Rotation #511-512
Cavaliers -6.5 over Raptors (2u)
I had a great read on this series so far with two leans but not plays on Cavs in game 1 and 2, and liked the Raptors 1H last game but stupidly took them 2H, that was a mistake. This team has quit and a few minutes into the 4th quarter that was obvious my looking at their faces. The Cavs are going to be out to take care of business and get plenty of rest for the conference finals and will be ready to go today. Lebron is a perfect 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in close out games and I like the Cavs to win this game by double digits for the 4th time this series to complete the sweep. Take the Cavs.
NBA
6:30 PM EST
Rotation #513-514
Wizards 1H -3 over Celtics (1u)
Wizards -4.5 over Celtics (1u)
Washington has dominated this series, but are down 2-1 thanks to two horrible 4th quarters in the first two games. The Wizards are the best first half home team in the league this year and they have covered the first half in each of the first three games and I look for that to continue today. I like the Wizards on the rebounding end a little bit more and that game 3 blowout is going to give them the confidence to finish strong again tonight. Hard to trust this team in the 4Q but I like them to win this game by 5+ in a must win game. Take the Wizards.
Parlay all three favorites (Wiz, Cavs, Rockets) on the moneyline for 2u to win 4u.
If Wizards and Cavs both win, we may take the Spurs +5.5 as I think that has a great chance to middle.
5/6 #NBA
5/6 #NBA
Teams down 0-2 are 7-0 ATS 1H this playoffs, let’s make it 8-0! Jazz keep this close
Jazz 1H +2.5 (2u)
Jazz +7 (3u)
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