WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 21st PICKS
Post time is 5:30PM EST on weekdays and 10 AM EST on weekends
2016 NBA Record 89-79 (+12.8 units)
2016 Free Football Record 7-3 (+9.1 units)
Basketball wagers range from 1-3 units and should be 1/2 of your NFL wager.
9:00 PM EST
BYU -10.5 over Wyoming
When it comes to bowl games it is always hard to gauge how motivated these teams will be to play in these meaningless exhibition games and I really only like to play bowls where a team has a definite edge in that category. Well that is certainly the case tonight with BYU who will be extremely motivated to win for their QB Taysom Hill who isn’t playing in this game after injuring his elbow in their final regular season game.
This is the fourth time in five years Hill has suffered a season ending injury and this team is going to play their hears out for their QB who has been everything for this BYU program. Motivation aside, the Cougars also have the edge on both sides of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the country allowing just 19.4 points per game are ninth in the nation in run defense. This is key because the one thing that Wyoming does well is run the ball. Their star RB Brian Hill had a great season on the ground, rushing for 1767 yards and 21 touchdowns on the year but this BYU defense will be the best he has faced all year by far. BYU is also a run first team and they have a tremendous offensive line which opens up big holes in the running game and also gives the QB plenty of time in the pocket. Believe it or not, not a single receiver on the team has more than 500 yards receiving and the majority of the damage this offense has done on the year has been on the ground with 26 of their 40 total touchdowns being scored off runs.
The big mismatch here is the BYU offense vs. the Wyoming defense, who is one of the worst in the nation. This is a team who is bad against the run (88th in the nation allowing 203 yards per game) which is not good news against a heavy run first offense with a big advantage in the trenches. Wyoming is even worse against the pass so even if they do decide to load the box to try and stop the run they will be vulnerable to play action and deep shots downfield, so it’s really pick your poison for this Wyoming defense. BYU will certainly miss Hill who has been a great duel threat QB for them but there’s not too big of a drop off between him and backup Tanner Mangum who was excellent as a freshman a year ago. Wyoming comes from a weaker conference and in order to beat superior programs in these Bowl Games you have to be able to run the ball and play defense. Wyoming will be able to run well enough with Hill, but if the score starts to get out of hand he will be good for nothing as they will have to get away from the running game. Their defense won’t be able to contain this BYU offense who is going to be playing inspired for Taysom Hill.
BYU had a bunch of close losses this year and if a few of those games went the other way they could be playing in a much bigger bowl game this year. After starting 1-3 BYU won seven of their last eight and this team is peaking at the perfect time. They have been playing great defense and each and every week they have gotten better. The defense is going to be the difference in this game as BYU is going to force Wyoming to become one dimensional while BYU is going to be able to attack the Wyoming defense through the air and on the ground. Lot’s of these early bowl games have been blowouts by the time the clock hit 00 and I see a similar outcome in this one again tonight.
BYU 41, Wyoming 20
BYU -10.5 (3 units)