8:00 PM EST
Spurs -5.5 over Rockets (2u)
Rockets/Spurs Over 214.5 (Parlay O214.5 with Spurs ML 1.5u to win 2.6 units)
After loss last night and in an attempt to get out of this frustrating funk, this morning I took some time to go back and review every game this playoffs because it seemed like the spread has barely mattered in any of these games. By it not mattering I mean the favorite has been winning in blowouts and the spread hasn’t been a sweat or the underdogs are winning outright. Well, after looking into it, out of the 56 games played this post-season, the spread has only mattered in 11 games. 80% of time time it was as easy as picking the winner and letting the spread take care of itself. Knowing those stats, it was foolish to think the Jazz would lose but cover, that just hasn’t been the case this playoffs. Granted now that we are almost in the conference finals I’m sure the spread will start mattering more, but in these semi final games, it’s really been as simple as picking who wins the game.
It’s always risky betting on a Rockets game because you are really betting on how they are going to shoot from 3. When they shoot over 40% they are undefeated this year and when they shoot under 30% they have only won one game. I can’t see them shooting 40% in back to back games especially in San Antonio after Pop makes adjustments, so I definitely like the Spurs to win today which makes taking the spread easy.
The Spurs defense has really struggled and I still expect Houston to shoot in the low 30%’s from 3, so they are going to score some points. Houston is going to have to go small with Nene out and their game plan is going to be to outscore the Spurs, so there should be plenty of points in this one as well. Take the Spurs and parlay the over with Spurs ML.